2022 tuaj yeem yog xyoo loj rau cov tuam txhab lag luam nqis peev hauv thev naus laus zis thiab daws ob qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam: tsis muaj cov neeg ua haujlwm thiab cov khoom lag luam tsis ruaj khov.Getty Images
Txhua hli Chris Kuehl, International Economic Analyst for Manufacturers thiab Manufacturers Association.President thiab Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Armada Corporate Intelligence, raws li nyob rau hauv Lawrence, Kan., koom tes nrog Morris, Nelson & Associates, Leavenworth, Kan., los tsim lub Armada Strategic Intelligence System ( ASIS).Nyob rau hauv nws, Kuehl thiab nws pab neeg tau piav qhia txog ntu ntu ntawm kev tsim khoom uas cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam hlau fabrication.Yuav luag tag nrho cov kev lag luam no tau taug kev mus ntev thoob plaws xyoo 2020 thiab 2021. Kev lag luam poob thaum ntxov 2020 vim pom tseeb, ua raws li. Ib qho kev txhawb nqa rov qab los, txawm tias tsis zoo, raws li cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb tau rov qab los.Qee cov khoom siv hlau tau tawm mus tag nrho, thaum lwm tus tsis muaj zog li lawv tuaj yeem ua tau - tsuav yog lawv muaj cov ntaub ntawv thiab cov neeg lawv xav tau kom ua tiav txoj haujlwm ( saib daim duab 1).
"[Peb tab tom pom] txuas ntxiv muaj zog ntawm nruab nrab mus rau lub sijhawm ntev xav tau kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam kawg peb ua haujlwm, thiab kev txaus siab rau peb cov kev pabcuam los ntawm ntau lub tuam txhab," said Bob Kamphuis, Thawj Tswj Hwm / CEO / Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Daim Ntawv Cog Lus Manufacturing giant MEC ntawm nws. lub rooj sib tham peb lub hlis twg hu nrog cov tub ua lag luam thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis.Qhov no tsis yog vim qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv raw rau MEC, tab sis vim yog qhov tsis txaus ntawm MEC cov neeg siv khoom.
Kamphuis tau hais ntxiv tias kev muab MEC cov chaw nyob hauv Mayville, Wisconsin thiab thoob plaws ib nrab sab hnub tuaj ntawm Asmeskas nrog cov saw hlau - suav nrog cov khoom siv raw khoom - "tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam me me xwb.Qhov no txhais tau hais tias thaum peb cov neeg siv khoom tuaj yeem nce lawv Peb yuav npaj txhij thaum peb muag. "
Raws li ib qho ntawm cov tuam txhab cog lus loj tshaj plaws hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas (thiab pheej rov ranked #1 ntawm FABRICATOR's FAB 40 Top Manufacturers daim ntawv teev), MEC ua haujlwm ze li ntawm txhua qhov kev lag luam hauv Kuehl qhov kev kwv yees ASIS txhua hli, thiab ntau qhov kev lag luam no yuav cuam tshuam nrog MEC kev paub.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev tsim hlau yog kev lag luam kev lag luam uas tau raug khi rau cov khoom lag luam cuam tshuam.Kev lag luam txuas ntxiv rub, mob siab rau tshem tawm.Qhov kev rub no yuav muaj zog ntxiv nrog kev siv nyiaj ntau ntxiv ntawm cov txheej txheem, ua tsaug rau txoj cai tsis ntev los no tau dhau los hauv Washington.Global mov. chains yuav tsum ntes tau, thiab kom txog thaum lawv ua, kev kub ntxhov siab yuav nyob twj ywm. Nrog rau tag nrho cov no hauv siab, 2022 yuav yog ib xyoo ntawm lub sijhawm.
ASIS tsab ntawv ceeb toom rub tawm cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm St. Louis Fed's Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) qhov kev pab cuam rau daim duab loj, cov ntaub ntawv tsim khoom lag luam npog ob qho tib si ruaj khov thiab tsis ruaj khov. thawj hlau sector uas muab raw cov ntaub ntawv rau hlau manufacturers, uas nyob rau hauv lem muab cov khoom rau ntau yam industries.
Cov neeg tsim khoom lawv tus kheej muaj nyob rau hauv ntau pawg uas siv los ntawm tsoomfwv los faib cov tuam txhab, suav nrog cov khoom siv hlau fabricated, txhua pawg uas suav nrog kev tsim kho thiab cov qauv hlau;boiler, tank thiab nkoj tsim khoom;thiab cov uas muab kev pabcuam rau lwm cov haujlwm.Cov chaw tsim khoom cog lus.Cov ntawv tshaj tawm ASIS tsis suav tag nrho cov cheeb tsam uas tau them los ntawm cov tuam txhab hlau - tsis muaj daim ntawv tshaj tawm - tab sis nws npog thaj chaw muag khoom rau feem ntau ntawm cov ntawv hlau tsim, phaj thiab raj hauv lub tebchaws.Yog li ntawd, nws muab cov ntsiab lus luv luv. ntawm qhov kev lag luam tuaj yeem ntsib hauv 2022.
Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub Kaum Hlis ASIS (raws li lub Cuaj Hlis cov ntaub ntawv), cov tuam txhab lag luam nyob hauv kev lag luam zoo dua li kev tsim khoom tag nrho.Machinery (nrog rau cov khoom siv ua liaj ua teb), aerospace, thiab fabricated hlau cov khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, zoo li yuav pom kev loj hlob thoob plaws. 2022-tab sis qhov kev loj hlob no yuav tshwm sim hauv ib puag ncig kev lag luam cuam tshuam los ntawm kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov saw hlau.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhov kev kwv yees rau kev tsim khoom lag luam ruaj khov thiab tsis ruaj khov qhia txog qhov kev sib haum xeeb no (saib daim duab 2). Lub Cuaj Hli ASIS kev kwv yees (tso tawm thaum Lub Kaum Hli) pom tias tag nrho cov khoom lag luam poob los ntawm qhov feem pua ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, tuav ruaj khov, thiab tom qab ntawd poob los ntawm ob peb feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus thaum ntxov 2023.
Cov hlau tseem ceeb yuav muaj kev loj hlob loj hauv xyoo 2022 (saib daim duab 3).Qhov no ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev lag luam kev lag luam txuas ntxiv mus rau cov khoom lag luam, tsuav yog cov tuam txhab lag luam thiab lwm tus tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus rau tus nqi nce ntxiv.
Daim duab 1 Lub snapshot no yog ib feem ntawm cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws tshaj tawm los ntawm Armada's Strategic Intelligence System (ASIS) thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, qhia kev kwv yees rau kev lag luam tshwj xeeb.Cov duab hauv kab lus no yog los ntawm ASIS kev kwv yees tso tawm thaum Lub Kaum Hli (siv cov ntaub ntawv Cuaj hlis), yog li cov Cov lej sib txawv me ntsis.Txawm li cas los xij, lub Kaum Hli thiab Kaum Ib Hlis ASIS tshaj tawm ob qho tib si taw qhia txog kev hloov pauv thiab lub sijhawm hauv 2022.
Kuhl tau sau tias "Los ntawm cov hlau mus rau npib tsib xee, txhuas, tooj liab thiab lwm yam hlau cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam, peb tseem pom qee qhov siab txhua lub sijhawm," Kuhl tau sau. ntes tau… Qee tus neeg yuav khoom tau tshaj tawm tias lawv tau pom cov khoom lag luam zoo dua.Tab sis tag nrho, cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb tseem ntshai. "
Raws li lub sijhawm xov xwm, Tebchaws Asmeskas thiab European Union tau sib tham txog daim ntawv cog lus tshiab uas cov nqi se ntawm cov hlau thiab txhuas los ntawm European Union ntawm 25% thiab 10%, feem, yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv.Tab sis raws li Tus Tuav Lag Luam Secretary Gina Raimondo, tus Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav tso cai txwv tus nqi ntawm cov hlau tsis pub thauj khoom los ntawm Tebchaws Europe.Nws tseem yuav pom tias qhov cuam tshuam no yuav cuam tshuam li cas rau cov khoom siv hauv lub sijhawm ntev.Txawm li cas los xij, cov neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam feem ntau tsis xav tias kev thov rau cov hlau yuav ploj mus. txhua lub sijhawm sai sai.
Ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam uas cov tuam txhab ua haujlwm, kev lag luam automotive yog qhov tsis sib haum xeeb tshaj plaws (saib daim duab 4). Kev lag luam poob qis heev nyob rau hauv thawj thiab thib ob peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2021 ua ntej tau txais lub zog thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo. Raws li ASIS kev kwv yees, lub zog no. yuav ntxiv dag zog rau lub quarter thib ib thiab thib ob ntawm xyoo 2022, ua ntej yuav qeeb qeeb dua tom qab xyoo.Tshaj tag nrho, kev lag luam yuav nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm zoo dua, tab sis nws yuav yog ib qho kev taug kev.Muaj ntau qhov volatility stems los ntawm lub ntiaj teb tsis txaus. microchips.
"Kev lag luam uas vam khom ntau rau cov chipsets tab tom ntsib qhov kev xav tsis zoo," Kuhl tau sau rau lub Cuaj Hli. "Tam sim no cov kws tshuaj ntsuam feem ntau pom lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2022 yog lub sijhawm uas cov saw hlau chipset yuav zoo li qub."
Cov lej hloov pauv hauv lub tsheb kwv yees qhia tau tias qhov xwm txheej tsis hloov pauv li cas. Cov kev kwv yees yav dhau los yog rau kev lag luam tsheb kom ruaj khov nrog kev loj hlob me ntsis.Thaum lub sijhawm sau ntawv, ASIS tau kwv yees kev loj hlob zoo heev hauv thawj ob peb lub hlis twg, tom qab ntawd poob qis tom qab xyoo, tej zaum yuav tshwm sim ntawm cov khoom siv tsis sib xws.Ntawm, nws rov qab mus rau microchips thiab lwm yam khoom siv.Thaum lawv tuaj txog, kev tsim khoom rov pib dua kom txog rau thaum cov saw hlau txuas ntxiv, ncua sijhawm ntau lawm.
Kev lag luam aerospace tab tom txhim kho sai heev. Raws li Cool tau sau rau lub Cuaj Hli, "Qhov kev pom zoo rau kev lag luam aviation zoo li zoo heev, ua kom nrawm mus rau thaum ntxov 2022 thiab txuas ntxiv mus siab thoob plaws xyoo.Qhov no yog ib qho kev pom zoo tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam tag nrho. "
ASIS kwv yees kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm ntau dua 22% ntawm 2020 thiab 2021 - tsis yog qhov txawv txav ntawm qhov kev lag luam uas tau ntsib thaum ntxov ntawm kev sib kis (saib daim duab 5). Txawm li cas los xij, ASIS kwv yees tias kev loj hlob yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo 2022, nrog kev nce loj hauv thawj zaug. Ob peb lub hlis twg.Thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kwv yees tias kev lag luam aerospace yuav loj hlob ntxiv 22%.Ib feem ntawm kev loj hlob tau tsav los ntawm kev nce siab hauv huab cua cargo.Airlines kuj ntxiv peev xwm, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Asia.
Cov pawg no suav nrog cov khoom siv teeb pom kev zoo, cov khoom siv hauv tsev, thiab ntau yam khoom siv hluav taws xob muaj feem xyuam nrog kev faib hluav taws xob.Cov tuam txhab ua haujlwm rau cov lag luam niche no ntsib qhov xwm txheej zoo sib xws: muaj kev xav tau tab sis tsis muaj cov khoom siv, thiab kev kub ntxhov nce ntxiv raws li cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv.ASIS kwv yees tias kev lag luam yuav loj hlob. nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, ces poob sharply, thiab yuav loj heev nyob rau hauv lub kawg ntawm lub xyoo (saib daim duab 6).
Raws li Kuhl tau sau tseg, "Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb xws li microchips tau pom meej meej tseem nyob hauv cov khoom tsis txaus.tooj liab, txawm li cas los xij, tsis tau ua cov xov xwm zoo li lwm yam hlau, "ntxiv tias tus nqi tooj liab tau nce 41% xyoo dhau ib xyoo txog lub Cuaj Hli 2021.
Cov pawg no suav nrog cov teeb pom kev zoo thiab cov ntaub ntawv hlau uas siv dav hauv cov tsev lag luam, ib qho kev lag luam uas raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov chaw ua haujlwm dav dav.Kev tsim vaj tsev muaj feem cuam tshuam rau kev tsim khoom, kev thauj mus los, warehousing thiab kev noj qab haus huv abound, tab sis lwm yam kev lag luam kev tsim kho, nrog rau cov tsev ua haujlwm, "Kev rov qab los ntawm kev tsim kho kev lag luam tau qeeb vim tias rov qhib dua thiab rov pib ua haujlwm tau siv sijhawm ntev dua li qhov xav tau," Kuhl tau sau.
Daim duab 2 Kev loj hlob ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam tsim khoom, suav nrog cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov thiab tsis ruaj khov, zoo li yuav nyob twj ywm nyob rau hauv 2022. Kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov, uas suav nrog cov hlau fabrication, zoo li yuav outpace broader manufacturing, ho.
Kev lag luam suav nrog kev tsim khoom siv ua liaj ua teb nrog rau ntau lwm cov haujlwm, thiab txij li lub Cuaj Hli 2021, kev lag luam txoj kev loj hlob nkhaus yog ib qho tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv ASIS (saib daim duab 7). txoj kev rau peb lub laj thawj, "Kuhl tau sau. Ua ntej, cov tsev lag luam, cov chaw tsim khoom thiab cov khoom sib dhos tau ncua 2020 capex, yog li tam sim no tau nce. Thib ob, cov neeg feem coob xav tias cov nqi nce mus, yog li cov tuam txhab xav yuav cov tshuab ua ntej. Thib peb, tau kawg , yog qhov tsis muaj kev ua haujlwm thiab kev thawb rau mechanization thiab automation thoob plaws kev tsim khoom, logistics, tsheb thauj mus los, thiab lwm yam kev lag luam.
Kull tau hais tias "Kev siv nyiaj ua liaj ua teb kuj tau nrawm dua," Kull tau hais tias, "raws li kev thov khoom noj thoob ntiaj teb tsim muaj peev xwm loj hlob rau kev lag luam ua liaj ua teb."
Cov kab sib txawv rau cov hlau fabrication qhia qhov nruab nrab, ntawm tus kheej lub tuam txhab theem, uas yog nyob ntawm lub khw cov neeg siv khoom sib xyaw.Muaj ntau lub tuam txhab tsis tsuas yog ua haujlwm rau ntau lwm cov haujlwm, tab sis yog cov lag luam me nrog ob peb cov neeg siv khoom uas tsav feem ntau ntawm cov nyiaj tau los. Ib tus neeg siv khoom loj tau mus rau sab qab teb, thiab lub Hoobkas nyiaj txiag tau cuam tshuam.
Txhua yam uas tau txiav txim siab, txoj kab sib txawv tau poob nrog rau txhua qhov kev lag luam thaum ntxov 2020, tab sis tsis yog ntau.Qhov nruab nrab tseem nyob ruaj khov vim qee lub khw muag khoom nyuaj thaum lwm tus neeg vam meej - dua, nyob ntawm kev sib xyaw ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab dab tsi tshwm sim nyob ib puag ncig tus neeg siv khoom. Txawm li cas los xij, pib lub Plaub Hlis 2022, ASIS cia siab tias yuav pom qee qhov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb thaum cov khoom loj tuaj (saib daim duab 8).
Kuehl tau piav qhia txog kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2022 cuam tshuam nrog kev cuam tshuam rau cov khoom siv tsheb thauj khoom thiab kev tsis txaus ntawm microchips thiab lwm yam khoom siv.Tab sis cov tuam txhab tseem yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev nthuav dav aerospace, thev naus laus zis, thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog koom nrog kev siv tshuab thiab automation.Txawm tias muaj kev sib tw, kev loj hlob hauv kev lag luam hlau tsim hauv 2022 zoo li zoo heev.
"Ib qho ntawm peb qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog tswj hwm thiab nthuav peb cov neeg ua haujlwm txawj ntse los pab peb paub txog peb txoj kev loj hlob.Peb cia siab tias kev nrhiav cov neeg zoo yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb rau yav tom ntej uas yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv feem ntau ntawm peb cheeb tsam Kev Sib Tw.Peb pab pawg HR tau siv ntau lub tswv yim nrhiav neeg ua haujlwm zoo, thiab ua ib lub tuam txhab peb yuav txuas ntxiv mus nqis peev hauv kev hloov pauv hloov pauv hloov pauv hloov pauv thiab siv tshuab thev naus laus zis. "
MEC's Kamphuis tau hais cov lus rau cov tub ua lag luam thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, ntxiv tias lub tuam txhab tau tsim txog $ 40 lab hauv kev siv peev nyiaj rau nws qhov chaw tshiab 450,000-square-foot hauv 2021 ib leeg.Hazel Park, Michigan cog.
Qhov kev paub ntawm MEC qhia txog kev lag luam loj dua.Tam sim no ntau dua li puas tau, cov neeg tsim khoom xav tau lub peev xwm hloov tau yooj yim uas tso cai rau lawv kom nrawm nrawm thiab teb rau qhov tsis paub tseeb.Lub hom phiaj boils mus rau kev ua haujlwm nrawm, los ntawm thawj qhov kev tsocai mus rau qhov chaw nres nkoj shipping.
Kev siv thev naus laus zis txuas ntxiv mus rau kev lag luam mus tom ntej, tab sis ob qho kev txwv ua rau kev loj hlob nyuaj: tsis muaj cov neeg ua haujlwm thiab cov khoom lag luam uas tsis tuaj yeem xav tau. Cov khw muag khoom uas ua tiav ob qho tib si yuav pom nthwv dej ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv xyoo 2022 thiab dhau mus.
Tim Heston, Senior Editor ntawm The FABRICATOR, tau npog cov hlau fabrication kev lag luam txij li xyoo 1998, pib nws txoj haujlwm nrog American Welding Society's Welding Magazine. Txij thaum ntawd los, nws tau npog tag nrho cov txheej txheem hlau fabrication los ntawm stamping, dabtsi yog khoov thiab txiav mus rau kev sib tsoo thiab polishing. Nws tau koom nrog FABRICATOR cov neeg ua haujlwm thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2007.
FABRICATOR yog North America tus thawj coj hlau tsim thiab fabrication kev lag luam magazine.Cov ntawv xov xwm muab xov xwm, cov khoom siv thiab cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm uas ua rau cov tuam txhab ua lawv txoj haujlwm zoo dua.FABRICATOR tau ua haujlwm rau kev lag luam txij li xyoo 1970.
Tam sim no nrog kev nkag mus rau tag nrho cov ntawv digital ntawm FABRICATOR, yooj yim nkag mus rau cov peev txheej tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam.
Cov ntawv digital ntawm The Tube & Pipe Journal yog tam sim no nkag mus tau yooj yim, muab kev nkag tau yooj yim rau cov khoom lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig.
Txaus siab rau kev nkag mus rau tag nrho cov ntawv luam tawm digital ntawm STAMPING Journal, uas muab cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis tshiab, kev coj ua zoo tshaj plaws thiab xov xwm kev lag luam rau kev lag luam hlau stamping.
Txaus siab rau kev nkag mus rau tag nrho cov ntawv tshaj tawm digital ntawm Daim Ntawv Qhia Ntxiv kom kawm paub yuav ua li cas ntxiv kev tsim khoom tuaj yeem siv los txhim kho kev ua haujlwm zoo thiab nce cov txiaj ntsig.
Tam sim no nrog kev nkag mus rau tag nrho cov ntawv digital ntawm Tus Fabricator en Español, yooj yim nkag mus rau cov peev txheej tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam.
Post lub sij hawm: Feb-17-2022